1st Base

I figure I need to get on with the rest of these positional previews before anybody else gets hurt.  However, should somebody gets hurt, that will make my future predictions very entertaining, and gives me one less person to mention.  Ok, and now on with the biggest acquisition of the off-season. 

Casey Kotchman will be the Indians starting first baseman against both righties and lefties.  It's not the sexy name that one would have liked coming out of last season, Kotchman is an average defender who bats left-handed with a high OBP, and low strikeout rate.  His previous stops in the bigs include the Angels, Mariners, Braves, and Mariners.  With all that movement he is still only 28 years old, and is still improving.  Now the downside is that he is only 2 years older than Matt LaPorta, has had very high and very low seasons, and all the movement has to cause a red flag.  Looking at who those teams will be starting at 1st this season, I see Albert Pujols, Justin Smoak, Freddie Freeman, and Carlos Pena.  Now if Kotchman isn't preferred over either of those guys(excluding Pujols), then what can we reasonably expect?  I like the move for added depth, and I like it from a veteran playoff experience perspective.  However, if you are trying to sell me that the offensive/defensive production is going to vastly improve by starting Kotchman, I am not buying it.  And the reason I am not buying it....

Who will be backing up Casey Kotchman?  Well the list will include the possible starting first basemen before the Kotchman signing, and that includes Matt LaPorta, Shelley Duncan, Russ Canzler, and Carlos Santana.  Prior to the Sizemore injury I would have said that Shelley Duncan and Carlos Santana would be on the club backing up Kotchman.  Now that the injury has happened, I am thinking there is an outside chance that LaPorta makes the MLB roster, but he will most likely be playing in the outfield if he does, he would be the 4th option at 1st should that be the case.

The first base situation is sticky, because Carlos Santana will get some starts there on rest days so that he can still be moved back to catcher should Lou Marson suffer an injury.  We will get more into the catcher situation next, but Marson has earned several starts this year, and Acta isn't taking Santana out of the lineup.  So with a possible 4 eligible 1st Baseman, one of these guys will DH and will still have plenty of subs should Santana need to move back to catcher during a game.  So let's remove Santana from the discussion, and lets just rank these guys by their offense and defensive abilities.

Defensive - Kotchman (.998), LaPorta(.993),  and Duncan(.980)
Offensive - Kotchman, LaPorta, and Duncan(based on career numbers).

However just using the eye ball test, I think it is easy to see that LaPorta isn't as good in a platoon roll as he is when he is getting everyday at-bats.  Duncan is a GREAT pinch hitter in any league.  I need to look-up his pinch hitting stats, but he seems to hit over .300 with power in that roll, even when Acta finds ways to utilize him in AL games.  So barring the Sizemore injury it would seem to make sense to move LaPorta to AAA to get him those everyday ABs.  However, in AAA we now have the International League batting champion Russ Canzler.  What in the world do we do with him?  I can't tell you anything of him defensively, but he is like LaPorta in that in AAA he crushes everything offensively.  The best option for the Indians, is for Chisenhall to make the big league club, and have Canzler play 3B, and LaPorta play 1B when Sizemore comes back.  Now this is really all semantics, because this is me hoping for a good season from the Columbus Clippers too.  Like I said in the 3rd base preview, I suspect Chisenhall will not make the big league club and he will be in AAA.  Still Canzler can play a few positions and so can LaPorta, so expect to see them all over the diamond if they are both in AAA.

Prospects to watch:
Russ Canzler
Jesus Aguilar

That's all for the revolving door at first base.  This position is the offensive X-factor for this team.  It was a weak spot last season, and this year it has to carry it's weight.  If any of these guys can step up, I suspect we can make a playoff run, if not then we are still going to be behind the 8-ball, and mostly because of lack of production at this position.  Just so you can fully understand how much of a weakness 1st base is for the Indians in comparison of other clubs, let me list the other first basemen in the AL Central this season...Prince Fielder, Eric Hosmer, Paul Konerko, and Justin Morneau(maybe).  Let me give you a listing of other AL first basemen, and think where among them you would rank Casey Kotchman...

Mark Teixera, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Lind, Chris Davis, Albert Pujols, Justin Smoak, Daric Barton, and Mitch Moreland. 

I know it is tough to compare anybody to the elites, but the bottom line is that the other playoff contenders are getting elite production from this position, and the Indians are just trying to get by.  We will see if it works.