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Saturday, March 31, 2012

Roster Shaping Up

News broke last night that the Tribe will be keeping Shelley Duncan, Dan Wheeler, and Jason Donald on the big league roster to open the season.  To me this means two things, first that Shelly Duncan is getting a well deserved shot in LF(more on that later today).  Second, Jason Donald may have survived the spring performance of Jose Lopez and will be our utility infielder for the season.  Love the call, he has always been a very serviceable player for this team since the Cliff Lee trade.  He isn't an All-Star talent, but he reminds me of a Craig Counsell, a guy who comes off the bench in any situation that delivers what teams who want to contend need.  Jose Lopez also could have been a great pick, but knowing the track record of Donald in Cleveland, I like this decision. 

Dan Wheeler won a bullpen job.  I believe there is still one more bullpen spot to be filled.  Wheeler is a very interesting choice.  He can fill the old Chad Durbin role of mop up worker from the pen, or he can be plugged in the back of the bullpen if Chris Perez isn't ready by Opening Day.  I like this move from the versatility that Wheeler provides.  However, he hasn't had the greatest of seasons the last few years, so he needs to start off strong to stay there.  The one thing the Tribe do not lack, is bullpen options.  We got a ton of arms, and any can get hot at any time at any level of the organization. 

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

3rd Base Winner

And the winner at third base is the Manahan, Jack Hanahan!  The Tribe sent down Lonnie Chisenhall to Triple-A Columbus yesterday signalling that Hanahan won the starting job with the Indians.  I like this move for both the Indians, and both players involved.  Hanahan is 32, is great defensively, and is getting in a comfort zone offensively.  Chisenhall needs everyday ABs, down in Columbus he can work on his strike zone discipline, and continue to improve defensively.  Make no mistake, Chisenhall is still our Dippin Dot's at 3rd base, but he can still improve some things in AAA. 

Also the Tribe optioned Matt LaPorta and Fred Lewis to Columbus.  Shelley Duncan will most likely be starting in LF as this blog has figured since he began tearing the covering off the ball in spring. 

Sunday, March 18, 2012

March Madness

Well it's official, my brackets are busted.  Now being a University of Kentucky graduate I still have some hope since naturally I got to pick my Wildcats to win the national title, but my long shot hope of a fellow Kentucky school in that of the Murray State Racers making the Final Four was ended this weekend.  Major bummer, but with the Racers gone from basketball, it's time to race towards the MLB season with a preview of our Tribe pitching staff.  How was that segue?  Using other college teams that were eliminated I could have made a lot worse segues.  How about, "Speaking of the Delta Devils, lets talk about the Tribe starters?", or "The Shockers may be eliminated, but we still got a lot of shockers happening in spring training".  Enough of that, onto the starting pitching.

The Ace:  Justin Masterson(#1) -Manny Acta earlier this spring unveiled the opening day starter to be Justin Masterson.  Not super shocking, as he was the ace of our staff last year, and while Ubaldo is the sexy name and higher priced pitcher, this is Masterson's staff.  Justin Masterson posted Cy Young like performances for most last season, however the run support was way down for him.  It seems that no matter the season, the Indians have a problem of never putting up offense for their aces.  Going back to CC, Cliff Lee, Carmona, and now Masterson, I feel Masterson with at least average run support should have been a 20+ game winning pitcher last season.  Masterson needs to keep improving, and if he can at least duplicate last year at the very least then he has held up his end of the rotation. 

The X-Factors - Ubaldo Jimenez(#2)/Roberto Heredia(???) - The success of the starting pitching will likely hang on the seasons of Jimenez and Heredia(whenever he does return to the Tribe).  The Indians announced they have re-negotiated Heredia's contract which means they have likely freed up some money for a potential trade later in the season, and that he may be coming back to Cleveland sooner rather than later.  Whenever he does return, he will likely be plugged into the back of the rotation barring an amazing start to the season for whomever the 5th starter is.  Either way, Jimenez and Heredia have the same positives associated to them:  Some of the best natural movement and pitches in all of baseball.  However they also have the exact same negative:  Hard to repeat mechanics/inconsistency.  So there it is, will we get another Jekyll and Hyde season from both of them?  Or will they stay in the flow of things and consistently throw strikes?  The results of those questions will likely dictate the success of the rotation, and by association the entire Tribe season.  The AL Central is not a friendly place for poor pitching, especially if you give up a lot of walks and hang many pitches.  Every team can jump on any pitcher at any time as the offenses in this division are for real.  The X-Factors are not only the key to our pitching staff, but our season as well.  Even more so than 1st base production.

The Consistency's:  Derek Lowe(#4) and Josh Tomlin(#3) - Tomlin and Lowe are not going to have as flashy of starts as Masterson, Jimenez, and Heredia, but their goal is simple.  Pitch deep into games, and keep us close as long as you are in.  So with that we have two contact pitchers who will be relying on location rather than pitch movement for success.  Lowe has a history of being a 200+ inning eater each year.  Even with his poor ERA in Atlanta last year he still ate up innings.  Josh Tomlin set a major league record for most starts to begin a career having pitched 5+ innings.  The problem with Tomlin was that as the game wore on players figured him out, and eventually would hit him the 2nd and 3rd time thru the lineups.  Plus most of his earned runs came off of home runs, something he was fortunate last season were mostly solo shots, but he needs to avoid the big hits.  Having a guy like Lowe on the staff may mean more for a guy like Tomlin than anybody.  A savvy veteran who has done it all for every team he has pitched for.  The Indians aren't necessarily looking for the lowest of ERA's from these guys, but they are looking for the bullpen to get some rest on the days these guys toe the rubber.  With Jimenez and Heredia who can have Jekyll and Hyde type starts, it is even more important that there is a guarantee that two out of five starts are a for sure rest day for the bullpen. 


The Darkhorses: Kevin Slowey, David Huff, and Jeanmar Gomez - As spring training is progressing I am eliminating Zack McAllister from the competition because I think with him having the least MLB experience he has too far of a hill to climb.  The favorite for this spot has to be Kevin Slowey just based on his MLB experience and most importantly his experience pitching in the AL Central from when he was with the Twins.  I like Slowey who had an off year while battling some injuries.  When he was in Minnesota he showed that he was a solid pitcher to have in the back of a rotation, and would eat up innings fairly consistently.  However he does have competition in the form of Huff and Gomez.  Gomez has made several amazing starts during the past two seasons while on call-up from Columbus, but due to the roster depth, and spotty performances in between has not been able to keep a spot on the MLBHeredia returns.    David Huff has always intrigued me.  Here is a guy who led the Indians in wins two seasons ago, and then pitched most of last season in Columbus before having some very good starts after his call-up last summer.  He is the only left-handed option out of our entire staff, and yet I don't think he will get the spot.  I see a lot of Cliff Lee in him as I stated in the last post.  I am hoping he can put it all together for the Tribe soon, because he is left handed, fits the trend of the staff as a location/contact hitter, but just needs to consistently find that good release point.  If he can do it in the minors, there is no reason why can't do the same in the majors, he just needs to do a better job scouting the opposing lineups perhaps.  Which leads me to the next point about the starting pitching....

For every pitcher there is a catcher.  The Tribe will enter the season with Carlos Santana as the number 1 catcher and Lou Marson as the primary backup.  When you watch Tribe games the starting pitchers appeared to perform better with Marson behind the plate(exclusion being Masterson).  Whatever the reason is Marson just seems to call a better game than Santana at this point in their careers.  Don't forget that Santana converted to catcher from 3rd Base while in the minors, so he is still somewhat learning the position.  The reason his call-up took so long was that the Indians felt it best to leave him in AAA so that he can learn how to handle pitchers and call better games.  Well his bat couldn't stop his rise to the big leagues, but now that Marson is hitting decently you can see there is a difference in the pitchers based on who the catcher is.  Just from an outside perspective, the area I hope Santana improves on is presenting a big target quicker for each pitch.  I noticed that Marson would be in position with the target ready before the pitcher would need to aim for it, where Santana is still moving his body or opening the mitt during the pitcher's windup.  Maybe its something minor and irrelevant, but that is all I can really tell from my vantage point of my home in Indiana.  I am sure they both receive the same scouting report, and they each have different relationships with the pitchers, but if they are the ones calling the pitches, then Santana needs to improve on that.  He will, because he is still learning the position and the MLB staff.  I expect Santana to catch Masterson and Jimenez all year, and I am hoping that Marson is catching at least Tomlin every 5 starts.  For whatever reason, when it comes to the Mr. Consistency's of the team, Marson just gets the most out of them, where Santana seems to get the most out of the aggressive guys like Jimenez and Masterson.  We will see how the Tribe uses the catching rotation, which may be as important to the pitching as the pitchers themselves. 

Predicted Rotation:  Masterson, Jimenez, Tomlin, Lowe, and Slowey.
Columbus Rotation: Gomez, Heredia(???), McAllister, Huff, and Anthony Reyes(he is still coming back right?).

Players to Watch:  Carlos Carrasco - he is out for the year for arm surgery, but figure this could be the last year for Heredia on this team, so we need somebody to fill those shoes should the Tribe not bring him back.  Carrasco has the stuff of a #2 pitcher on a MLB staff, so stay tuned in to his progress, because if he can enter spring training healthy next season, he will be one of the new "X-Factors" for this staff and team.   

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Big Ten Hiatus

Howdy all,

Sorry for the delay in my next couple posts as I know a lot is going on with the Tribe right now.  Before I get to that I just want to explain where I have been.  I was at the Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament all weekend, and needless to say I was quite pleased with the teams I saw.  A lot of analysts say that it's the best conference in college basketball right now.  While I don't know that to be sure, I will say that every team is composed of a game changing star, and that is saying something.  Michigan State won the tournament and looks like a great team going into the NCAA Tournament.  However, watch out for Ohio State.  They dismantled Michigan, and can win any game with their three point shooting.  Keeping Sullinger out of foul trouble will be their key, but I like the scrappiness of Aaron Craft defensively. 

Now to some very fast Tribe tidbits, and then later this week I will start posting regularly again. 

-  Casey Kotchman is day-to-day with an injury.  I think he is fitting in great already.  Matt LaPorta and Russ Canzler have gotten the Spring Training starts during his absence.

-  The pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona had his false identity charges dropped pending a work release program.  Not sure when he will come back to the Indians just yet, but it sounds like he will be back MUCH sooner than later.  I am still a bit baffled, he doesn't have charges for a false identity, but he will have a different name when he returns to the states?  Legal systems baffle me, and to think I almost became a lawyer.  Get your Heredia jerseys ASAP

- Shelley Duncan I think has taken a leak in left field.  He has been lights out this spring according to the box scores since I can't catch all of these games, and if you can find me any OF candidates playing better than him then I am missing something.  He has marked his territory, and its starting Left Fielder. 

- The pitching is off to a rocky start.  However, they are "hitting their marks" so I guess its nothing to worry about.  Unless they are aiming for bats.  Just kidding, in spring training you can usually throw away a pitcher's statistics as a projection of how well they will perform over the season.  Pitchers are usually working on specific pitches each outing, new mechanics, or even new pitches just to see if they can throw them over consistently.  Hitters are usually not working on AS many items when at the plate, and are ready for the season well before pitchers are.  I am still not worried in the least about our staff, and if the lineup stays healthy, this is definitely a post-season staff.  And that's before Carmona returns.  We could have a Triple-A staff that has all major league experience and are all still young enough to be improving! 

-  I want David Huff to be our 5th starter.  It may be nuts, and he may of had a few bad spring outings, but we need a lefty somewhere in this rotation.  And I am blind or did I see him show flashes of what Cliff Lee was doing on the mound when he came up from Triple A midseason.  If he can control the ball like Lee or remotely close for the majority of his starts, he can be scary good too.  Which is why for him only, I would like to see Marson as his every start catcher.  He seems to call a better game for our guys who use more location emphasis to get batters out, like Tomlin and Lowe.  Santana can catch Masterson and Jimenez, because I think their stuff can get them by. 

-  For those of you who think Zach McAllister has a chance at the 5th spot.  He doesn't.  He is seeing the back end of most games, which means his stats are against a lot of non-MLBers.  I still like his potential a lot.  We got a lot of Triple-A guys who are owning that level of competition.  We just need a few more Kipnis's who take advantage of their call-ups from day one. 

That's what I got for now. 

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Sizemore has back surgery

I am a little behind, because I was actually incredibly busy at work today, but it appears as if Grady Sizemore will miss what I am guessing is the first month of the season after undergoing back surgery following a 'strained back' he suffered while fielding grounders in spring training. 

Let's just accept one thing, the days of Grady Sizemore playing everyday are officially over.  At one point he was the leading active player in 'games started streak', but even then he was way behind Cal Ripkin Jr, and Craig Biggio.  So what is Grady Sizemore now?  Well, if he plays like the Grady Sizemore of late April/May of 2011, he is a pretty special talent still.  There is also no debate that when healthy, he is a one of a kind talent both offensively and defensively.  So should we be upset by this? 

No.  I am actually not that upset that Sizemore is out.  We need to accept that he isn't an everyday player, and is it really that hard to?  Our DH doesn't even DH every day because he needs rest too.  What Sizemore is, is specially gifted at many baseball activities.  We own his rights, and we have tons of possible fill-ins who can be serviceable at the major league level.  Our offense wasn't banking on Grady to carry it.  We are banking on Santana, Choo, Asdrubal, and Kipnis for the runs this year.  Our defense isn't going to take an extreme drop-off except for in ballparks with spacious outfields, because Michael Brantley is a good defensive CF, and we have about 50 guys who can play left field.  At home, playing left field is even easier, since speed isn't a factor with the outfield wall at The Jake.  I want to see what LaPorta, Cunningham, and Canzler can do for us.  LaPorta may be better since it is his natural position and he isn't thinking about defense any more.  Call me crazy, but I prefer him in LF if he is going to play daily. 

Lastly, this is setting the Indians up for making a huge trade for a post-season run, without making a trade!  Let's let Grady take all the time he needs.  Rest his knees, get that back 100%, hold him back on his rehab, and force him to not push it back too soon.  He is a competitor and wants to be on the field.  My biggest concern is he overdoes it and re-injures something.  Let's get the trainers to REALLY SLOW his rehab.  Then come June/July have him get those AAA ABs, and then plug him in.  I am sure we will be banged up by then anyways, and we will add an elite talent that is healthy.  We don't need him healthy for the whole season, we need him healthy in the key months, and to get hot when we need that extra offensive/defensive boost down the stretch.  The same stretch that the whole team gassed out in last season.

So let's not get bent out of shape about another Grady injury.  I will always remember the days of him playing every day and being one of the most unheralded stars in major league baseball.  And I don't like seeing his legacy being tarnished with a swarm of injuries that remind me of Ken Griffey Jr's days in Cincinnati.  However, Jr was still able to stay healthy for half a season here and there, so let's use all of the juice Grady has, and let's hope those few months where we will see are the months we need that shot of adrenaline to get us back into the playoffs. 

Get well Grady.  And be there in the summer please.  The Gradies Ladies section is always better to see in the summer.