Well it's official, my brackets are busted. Now being a University of Kentucky graduate I still have some hope since naturally I got to pick my Wildcats to win the national title, but my long shot hope of a fellow Kentucky school in that of the Murray State Racers making the Final Four was ended this weekend. Major bummer, but with the Racers gone from basketball, it's time to race towards the MLB season with a preview of our Tribe pitching staff. How was that segue? Using other college teams that were eliminated I could have made a lot worse segues. How about, "Speaking of the Delta Devils, lets talk about the Tribe starters?", or "The Shockers may be eliminated, but we still got a lot of shockers happening in spring training". Enough of that, onto the starting pitching.
The Ace: Justin Masterson(#1) -Manny Acta earlier this spring unveiled the opening day starter to be Justin Masterson. Not super shocking, as he was the ace of our staff last year, and while Ubaldo is the sexy name and higher priced pitcher, this is Masterson's staff. Justin Masterson posted Cy Young like performances for most last season, however the run support was way down for him. It seems that no matter the season, the Indians have a problem of never putting up offense for their aces. Going back to CC, Cliff Lee, Carmona, and now Masterson, I feel Masterson with at least average run support should have been a 20+ game winning pitcher last season. Masterson needs to keep improving, and if he can at least duplicate last year at the very least then he has held up his end of the rotation.
The X-Factors - Ubaldo Jimenez(#2)/Roberto Heredia(???) - The success of the starting pitching will likely hang on the seasons of Jimenez and Heredia(whenever he does return to the Tribe). The Indians announced they have re-negotiated Heredia's contract which means they have likely freed up some money for a potential trade later in the season, and that he may be coming back to Cleveland sooner rather than later. Whenever he does return, he will likely be plugged into the back of the rotation barring an amazing start to the season for whomever the 5th starter is. Either way, Jimenez and Heredia have the same positives associated to them: Some of the best natural movement and pitches in all of baseball. However they also have the exact same negative: Hard to repeat mechanics/inconsistency. So there it is, will we get another Jekyll and Hyde season from both of them? Or will they stay in the flow of things and consistently throw strikes? The results of those questions will likely dictate the success of the rotation, and by association the entire Tribe season. The AL Central is not a friendly place for poor pitching, especially if you give up a lot of walks and hang many pitches. Every team can jump on any pitcher at any time as the offenses in this division are for real. The X-Factors are not only the key to our pitching staff, but our season as well. Even more so than 1st base production.
The Consistency's: Derek Lowe(#4) and Josh Tomlin(#3) - Tomlin and Lowe are not going to have as flashy of starts as Masterson, Jimenez, and Heredia, but their goal is simple. Pitch deep into games, and keep us close as long as you are in. So with that we have two contact pitchers who will be relying on location rather than pitch movement for success. Lowe has a history of being a 200+ inning eater each year. Even with his poor ERA in Atlanta last year he still ate up innings. Josh Tomlin set a major league record for most starts to begin a career having pitched 5+ innings. The problem with Tomlin was that as the game wore on players figured him out, and eventually would hit him the 2nd and 3rd time thru the lineups. Plus most of his earned runs came off of home runs, something he was fortunate last season were mostly solo shots, but he needs to avoid the big hits. Having a guy like Lowe on the staff may mean more for a guy like Tomlin than anybody. A savvy veteran who has done it all for every team he has pitched for. The Indians aren't necessarily looking for the lowest of ERA's from these guys, but they are looking for the bullpen to get some rest on the days these guys toe the rubber. With Jimenez and Heredia who can have Jekyll and Hyde type starts, it is even more important that there is a guarantee that two out of five starts are a for sure rest day for the bullpen.
The Darkhorses: Kevin Slowey, David Huff, and Jeanmar Gomez - As spring training is progressing I am eliminating Zack McAllister from the competition because I think with him having the least MLB experience he has too far of a hill to climb. The favorite for this spot has to be Kevin Slowey just based on his MLB experience and most importantly his experience pitching in the AL Central from when he was with the Twins. I like Slowey who had an off year while battling some injuries. When he was in Minnesota he showed that he was a solid pitcher to have in the back of a rotation, and would eat up innings fairly consistently. However he does have competition in the form of Huff and Gomez. Gomez has made several amazing starts during the past two seasons while on call-up from Columbus, but due to the roster depth, and spotty performances in between has not been able to keep a spot on the MLBHeredia returns. David Huff has always intrigued me. Here is a guy who led the Indians in wins two seasons ago, and then pitched most of last season in Columbus before having some very good starts after his call-up last summer. He is the only left-handed option out of our entire staff, and yet I don't think he will get the spot. I see a lot of Cliff Lee in him as I stated in the last post. I am hoping he can put it all together for the Tribe soon, because he is left handed, fits the trend of the staff as a location/contact hitter, but just needs to consistently find that good release point. If he can do it in the minors, there is no reason why can't do the same in the majors, he just needs to do a better job scouting the opposing lineups perhaps. Which leads me to the next point about the starting pitching....
For every pitcher there is a catcher. The Tribe will enter the season with Carlos Santana as the number 1 catcher and Lou Marson as the primary backup. When you watch Tribe games the starting pitchers appeared to perform better with Marson behind the plate(exclusion being Masterson). Whatever the reason is Marson just seems to call a better game than Santana at this point in their careers. Don't forget that Santana converted to catcher from 3rd Base while in the minors, so he is still somewhat learning the position. The reason his call-up took so long was that the Indians felt it best to leave him in AAA so that he can learn how to handle pitchers and call better games. Well his bat couldn't stop his rise to the big leagues, but now that Marson is hitting decently you can see there is a difference in the pitchers based on who the catcher is. Just from an outside perspective, the area I hope Santana improves on is presenting a big target quicker for each pitch. I noticed that Marson would be in position with the target ready before the pitcher would need to aim for it, where Santana is still moving his body or opening the mitt during the pitcher's windup. Maybe its something minor and irrelevant, but that is all I can really tell from my vantage point of my home in Indiana. I am sure they both receive the same scouting report, and they each have different relationships with the pitchers, but if they are the ones calling the pitches, then Santana needs to improve on that. He will, because he is still learning the position and the MLB staff. I expect Santana to catch Masterson and Jimenez all year, and I am hoping that Marson is catching at least Tomlin every 5 starts. For whatever reason, when it comes to the Mr. Consistency's of the team, Marson just gets the most out of them, where Santana seems to get the most out of the aggressive guys like Jimenez and Masterson. We will see how the Tribe uses the catching rotation, which may be as important to the pitching as the pitchers themselves.
Predicted Rotation: Masterson, Jimenez, Tomlin, Lowe, and Slowey.
Columbus Rotation: Gomez, Heredia(???), McAllister, Huff, and Anthony Reyes(he is still coming back right?).
Players to Watch: Carlos Carrasco - he is out for the year for arm surgery, but figure this could be the last year for Heredia on this team, so we need somebody to fill those shoes should the Tribe not bring him back. Carrasco has the stuff of a #2 pitcher on a MLB staff, so stay tuned in to his progress, because if he can enter spring training healthy next season, he will be one of the new "X-Factors" for this staff and team.
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