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Tuesday, June 5, 2012

53 Game In-Season Update

A two month season update..somewhat long so grab a cup of coffee.  Sorry
guys/girls, but it has been a 53 game season already.

Record:  28-25 (2nd in AL Central; 2.5 games behind Hawk Harrelson)

Offensive MVP:  Jason Kipnis (.280 avg, .339 OBP, 9 HR(Team High), 34
RBI(Team High), 13 SB(Team High))

At the start of the season you knew that Jason Kipnis had the potential
for a really good season, because after all We are all Kipnisses, and he
has some great twitter posts.  However as a betting man, the guys you
were hoping to see here to start the year was A-Cab, Santana, or Choo.
The reason being is that you wanted A-Cab to prove last season was no
fluke, Santana to pick up the average, and Choo to get back to his
pre-2010 form.  Well all three of those guys have been injured or left
the team at some point already this season.  Kipnis was hurt briefly and
had a slow start, but has picked it up starting late April and not
looked back.  Choo has found a home in the lead-off spot, and maybe in a
few weeks his name will be here, but for now I am calling Jason Kipnis
our Offensive MVP.  The steals are a huge deal as he has only been
caught once, he leads the team in RBIs by 10(Michael Brantley is 2nd),
and the more he plays the more comparisons are made about him and Chase
Utley.  I can live with Chase Utley are 2B, but I am hoping for the
first Jason Kipnis, and as good as he has been offensively, his defense
has gone unnoticed, which is a good thing.  This converted OF, looks
like he has been playing 2B the whole time.  Having Grimmace and A-Cab
on either side of him helps his range too.

Projected Offensive MVP(by end of year):  Shin-Soo Choo - He has some
catching up to do, but he is getting hot, and the power is slowly
returning too.  Kipnis is getting a lot of respect behind him, so the
pitches Choo sees are improving too.

Best Starting Pitcher:  Derek Lowe (7-3, 3.06ERA)

Coming into the season the keys for the Indians was the starting of
Ubaldo and Masterson.  Well, neither have pitched very well, and we are
still in 2nd.  The reason for that is Derek Lowe.  He always seems to
have up and down seasons and this appears to be an 'up' season for the
sinkerballer, as he is leading by example on the mound and in the
clubhouse.  He rarely has gone less than 5 IP in a start if at all, and
even without his best stuff he has fought thru to get a quality start.
For me, this is by far the best off-season acquisition of the Tribe, and
maybe the least discussed since the trade for Lowe happened almost
immediately after the year and went unnoticed.  2nd place - Jeanmar
Gomez

Projected Best Starting Pitcher(by end of year):  Ubaldo Jimenez - This
is a simple pick, I want to make the playoffs this season.  Derek Lowe
leading the team won't get us there, we need one of our aces to be an
ace, and Ubaldo needs to be the guy that gets on track.  He has filthy
stuff, and when he throws strikes he is untouchable.  He gets his first
shot to move up the rankings here as he starts against the Tiggers
tonight.

Best Reliever:  Chris Perez (0-1, 17 consecutive saves, 2.53 ERA, 21.1
IP, 20 K's)

Maybe the most nationally talked about Indians thus far, Chris Perez has
also backed up his talk with 17 consecutive saves, and his only blown
save being opening day.  I am not a fan of the "You Can't See Me"
maneuver, but especially against the Royals, who this group of Indians
has decided will be their rivals for pretty heated games.  That is fine
with me, IF the Royals are the 2nd best team in the Central, but as it
stands their young talent hasn't produced wins yet, so let's stick to
dueling the White Sox and Tigers.  "You hit us, we will hit you" is a
good rallying call for the bullpen, and maybe all MLB pitchers.  I think
Perez gets more respect from Tribe fans, who have in recent years seen
what a bad closer can cost a team in terms of wins and places in the
standings.  Let me ask this question, if Bob Wickman, Joe Borowski,
Kerry Wood, and David Riske never existed as Indians closers where would
we be today?  In fact, replace them with somebody who could consistently
close out games, at like an 80% clip, would we be better?  Yes.  Would
CC and Cliff Lee have at least 20 more wins?  Yes.

Projected Best Reliever(by end of year):  Chris Perez - Why not?
Pestano and the rest of the bullpen mafia are getting him the ball with
leads, and he is getting better and better as the season drags on.  He
wants to talk and be hated by opponents, and the best way to do that is
by executing saves to anger them more.

Best Play to Rob the Indians:  Ben Revere(Twins) summersault catch on
Lonnie Chisenhall line drive - Seriously, look this one up.  Lonnie
Chisenhall starts the 9th off with a rocket to RF, but somebody must
have lit a lantern, because Revere knew the ball was coming and made an
unbelievable catch.

Best Play by and Indians fielder:  Michael Brantley robs Alex Rios - In
Chicago, Derek Lowe couldn't get out of the first, and Rios hits a ball
over the fence in CF, but Michael Brantley did a bang up Kenny Lofton
impersonation and extended his glove over the wall to rob Rios of a HR.


Best Start of the Year:  Justin Masterson outdueled Verlander - What
makes this more impressive is Detroit's lineup is stacked.

New Faces/Call-Ups so far - Nick Hagadone(LHP), Scott Barnes(RHP), Jose
Lopez(3B), Johnny Damon(LF), Zach McAllister(RHP), Lonnie
Chisenhall(3B), Matt LaPorta(LF/1B), Juan Diaz (SS), and Jeremy Accardo
(RHP)

All of these guys I like because they are young, and most importantly
for this season's Tribe, they are all reasons why the Tribe can make a
trade to improve the team if the right player or prospect is available.
Take a look at the bullpen for instance.  This may be the area of the
team with the most depth and ability in all levels of the organization.
Contending teams covet reliable relievers at the trade deadline (see the
demands in the past for Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Brian Fuentes, etc).
The Tribe doesn't care a great deal about relievers long term because
they don't believe you can rely on them from year-to-year like a
position player(i.e Tony Sipp, over a 5.50 ERA this season).  So that
makes me believe that IF the right offer was available that Pestano, R.
Perez, Joe Smith, Accardo, and Sipp are all expendable assets.  The
reasons they are expendable is have you seen Nick Hagadone or Scott
Barnes pitch yet?  Barnes is a former 1st round pick of Cleveland, and
may transition back to starting, but unlikely so for now he is a
reliever with a funky delivery which the Indians like(different arm
slots out of the pen). Hagadone has come up and slid right into Perez's
spot, and even Sipp's spot as the #1 lefty out of the bullpen.  Both
have looked strong and can go for multiple innings.

Chisenhall has come back like a mad man hitting the ball with power and
going near .500avg thru his first series back in the majors.  Problem is
he has no walks yet, and he started in AAA to work on plate discipline,
so if he cools off slightly, I still expect him to return to the minors.
However, his presence makes Lopez AND The Manahan trade assets.

Guys from that list to stick on a playoff roster(should Indians make
it):  Hagadone, Barnes, Damon, and Chisenhall.

1st Round Draft Pick:  Tyler Naquin OF, Texas A&M (.380avg, .458OBP,
3HRs, 21 SBs)
    - The scouting report on Naquin is that they don't know what
position he will play.  He doesn't have the power of a corner OF, and
maybe not the speed of a CF.  Sounds bad for a 1st round pick, but
apparently his right arm is very big league ready and should be close to
Choo's for best in the organization right away.  The power may develop,
but as far as offense goes, the guy is a high average hitter with an
even higher OBP.  The Indians always draft best player available, but
this move can't but make you question the future of Grady Sizemore and
the signability of Choo just a little bit.  Naquin is a few years away
from making a big league impact, but could be a good piece if he makes
the bigs.

Last Year's Draft current MVP - Fransisco Lindor SS, Lake County
Captains (.273 avg, 10 doubles, 3 triples, 4 HRs, 13 SB, and a .323
OBP).
     - Lindor hasn't disappointed in his professional debut, and his
defense, and leadership appears to be MLB ready.  He is still only 18
years old, so the Indians will take their time moving him up in order to
get his offense and power to develop.  Lindor will be in the big leagues
before long, so this pick is already a big hit.  In fact the last few
drafts have proven well, Beau Mills(AAA), Scott Barnes(MLB), Alex
White(MLB), Drew Pomeranz(MLB), and Lonnie Chisenhall(MLB).  So if
Naquin can follow those footsteps, then we should be fine.

Areas of improvement:  Hitting against lefties(we are awful), Starting
pitching, and Left Field.

Reinforcements:  Grady Sizemore (expected to return anytime between 2
weeks and the All-Star break), Roberto Heredia (Late July), and Rafael
Perez(2 more weeks on DL).

Possible Trade Targets:  Omar Infante (.308 vs. lefties), Gregor Blanco
(.311 vs. lefties), Jesus Guzman (.313 vs. lefties)...see a trend?
Brandon McCarthy(OAK), James McDonald (Pit), Shaun Marcum(MIL), Wandy
Rodriguez(Hou), and Joe Saunders (Ari).  Tough to predict right now,
because many teams are still contenders and you don't know the asking
price until more injuries occur.

Final Outlook:  The Tribe avoided the injury bug for most of the first
50 games, but are currently on a big slide due to some injuries and the
starting pitching falling off as of late.  They can still get things
back on track, as I don't believe the White Sox will stay this hot, but
the Tigers won't stay in hibernation all season either.  The keys to the
rest of the season are simple, Masterson/Ubaldo pitching like they
belong in the MLB, getting and staying healthy, and then what will Grady
Sizemore be when he returns.  Those three things ALL have to go in our
favor in order for us to make the playoffs.

Either way, tonight we get the Tigers and it's going to be Ubaldo
Jimenez getting the ball in Detroit.  GO TRIBE!

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